Saturday 7 November 2009

India feels chill wind from China

Fifty years ago, a young Dalai Lama fled Tibet in south-western China and crossed the border to Arunachal Pradesh in India’s remote north-eastern corner.

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Guanyu said...

India feels chill wind from China

By Ravi Velloor
07 November 2009

NEW DELHI: Fifty years ago, a young Dalai Lama fled Tibet in south-western China and crossed the border to Arunachal Pradesh in India’s remote north-eastern corner.

There, in the town of Tawang, he found safe haven from the Chinese troops who were chasing him.

Now the settlement is set to celebrate the return of the Dalai Lama, 74, who will open a hospital and lead Buddhist prayers during a week-long visit beginning tomorrow.

Although the Dalai Lama says his trip is merely spiritual, it appears to have aroused all of China’s deep-seated insecurities about foreign powers plotting with local elements to divide the country.

Beijing, which claims all of Arunachal Pradesh as its own territory, has demanded that New Delhi cancel the visit of the Dalai Lama, whose government-in-exile is based in the Indian hill town of Dharamsala.

The Tibetan spiritual leader is reviled by China as a separatist.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has refused to oblige. The Dalai Lama, he said, is a spiritual leader and valued guest and is free to go where he likes as long as he does not engage in political activity.

Arunachal Chief Minister Dorjee Khandu said the Dalai Lama will be treated as a state guest.

Still, only 15 months ago, New Delhi may have been more accommodating of China.

At that time, Tibetan protesters threatened to disrupt the passing of the Olympic torch through India on its way to the Beijing Olympics, and PM Singh’s government clamped down on them with brutal ferocity.

His National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan, the point man for the China relationship, personally supervised the security arrangements.

But that was then.

Now, even as annual bilateral trade tops US$50 billion (S$70 billion), ever larger numbers of Indian tourists and medical students show up in China and mainland companies pick up construction contracts in India, mutual suspicions have grown between the two neighbours.

Indian military officials say that while Chinese border incursions last year were about the same level as in the previous years, the nature of the patrolling has been far more aggressive.

‘There is no question that China, ever since it hosted the Olympics and watched the meltdown of the US economy, has taken on an increasingly aggressive posture on many issues,’ said a senior Indian Foreign Ministry official.

‘You can see that in the way they paraded their arms at the 60th anniversary (National Day) celebrations. We are still formulating our own policy responses to this.’

In 2005, the two countries seemed all set to accelerate their relationship, even though scars from a 1962 border conflict still exist in India.

Well aware that the unresolved border was the biggest impediment to a flowering of ties, they laid the groundwork for an end to the knotty problem with a clause that said ‘settled populations’ would not be disturbed.

Many thought this had set the stage for a trade-off: India would keep Arunachal Pradesh in the north-east and in the north-west, concede the Aksai Chin area of Kashmir to China.

Guanyu said...

Meanwhile, India-United States ties began gathering pace under the Bush administration. Their air forces conducted joint exercises close to the China border and aircraft carriers from their fleets conducted war games in the Bay of Bengal.

More significantly, Washington railroaded the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), of which China is a part, into lifting all curbs on nuclear commerce with India after New Delhi agreed to place its civilian nuclear facilities under international safeguards.

Then about two years ago, the Indians said, the Chinese appeared to have modified their approach. The deal on ‘settled populations’ did not apply to Tawang, it informed New Delhi.

Indeed, its ambassador to New Delhi said at the time: ‘Our view is that all of Arunachal is disputed territory.’

Subsequently, said Indian officials, Beijing watered down its 2003 recognition of Sikkim state as an integral part of India, went to the wire a year ago to try and block the NSG waiver on nuclear trade, and this year unsuccessfully tried to block the Asian Development Bank’s country strategy for India because it contained a reference to an irrigation project in Arunachal.

There is also deep worry here that China may divert the Brahmaputra River, which originates in Tibet, thus starving India’s north-eastern states of water.

Lately, official Chinese media has also accused India of flexing its political muscles. Last month, Beijing protested officially when PM Singh visited Arunachal Pradesh.

‘Over the past two years, the Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh have acquired a stridency that was never there before,’ Mr. Brajesh Mishra, national security adviser to former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, said at the weekend. ‘They are taking every position internationally and otherwise to say that Arunachal is not recognised as a part of India.’

Meanwhile, New Delhi has moved to improve its military preparedness along the 4,000km border. Airfields that have not operated for decades are being repaired, two fresh army divisions are being raised and a Sukhoi air squadron has been moved closer to the Tibet border.

Military sources say that some missile squadrons are also being moved closer to the eastern frontier, the area where it expects trouble would begin.

Still, two recent meetings on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit between PM Singh and his Chinese counterpart, Mr. Wen Jiabao, seemed to have had some cooling effect. That was followed by a meeting in Bangalore last week between foreign ministers of the two nations.

Beijing has, however, kept up its criticism of the Dalai Lama while seeming to have lowered the tone on India.

The Dalai Lama is to blame for the China-India tensions, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said at a news briefing on Tuesday.

‘The Dalai Lama often lies and often engages in acts to sabotage China’s relations with other countries,’ Mr. Ma said. ‘I am confident that his scheme to wreck China’s relations with the relevant country will come to nothing.’