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Thursday 5 March 2009
World misunderstands China’s military expenditure
What China includes and does not include in calculating its military budget is the reason the outside world fails to understand its real defence expenditure, military experts said.
World misunderstands China’s military expenditure, say experts
Minnie Chan in Beijing 5 March 2009
What China includes and does not include in calculating its military budget is the reason the outside world fails to understand its real defence expenditure, military experts said.
Andrei Chang, chief editor of the Canadian-based Kanwa Asian Defence Monthly and a long-time observer of China’s military, said he doubted that even the 14.9 per cent increase in the military budget for this year announced yesterday gave the real expenditure of the People’s Liberation Army.
“We know China has determined to build its first aircraft carrier, and [that project] certainly needs much more money,” he said.
“But we can’t find any hints from the figures of this year’s military budget ... does it have a special budget for the aircraft carrier project that wasn’t counted in the defence budget?”
A Shanghai-based military expert says the aircraft carrier project’s budget has been included in the defence budget for many years.
“Actually, money for the aircraft carrier development project is definitely part of the military budget. It has been allocated for a long time, but we do not announce it to the outside,” said the expert, who refused to be named.
“This military budget was approved last October by President Hu Jintao, who is also the chairman of the Central Military Commission.”
With Beijing facing a series of sensitive anniversaries this year, including the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, the 50th anniversary of a failed Tibet uprising, the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen crackdown and the 10th anniversary of the suppression of the Falun Gong, more money would be spent on internal security, the expert said.
“But internal security costs, such as the parade on National Day and the mobilisation of the local police force to maintain social stability, would not be counted in the military budget,” he said.
“We have a police force totalling nearly 3.5 million, which is 1-1/2 times that of our PLA. Indeed, internal security is another pillar that China never tells the outside world how much it has spent on.”
Ted Carpenter, vice-president for defence and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute in Washington, said China had kept the budget increase at such a level because it clearly believed that it still had important strategic objectives that required improving its military capability.
“For similar reasons, the United States is increasing its proposed military budget for the coming year, even though the economic crisis has had a greater impact here than in China, and even though US defence spending is already much larger than China’s [defence] budget,” Professor Carpenter said.
“[But] I also suspect the 14.9 per cent figure was a compromise - that if the economic situation were better, the increase would likely have been in the range of 17 to 18 per cent.”
He said China’s low transparency in military spending certainly made its neighbours nervous.
National People’s Congress spokesman Li Zhaoxing said the 480.7 billion yuan (HK$545.8 billion) budget did not have any invisible expenditures, but Mr. Chang said the PLA should learn from western countries to show its actual military expenditure every year, beyond just what is budgeted.
“China needs to show us how much [it has] spent on weapons development, soldiers’ salaries and other defence purposes,” he said.
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World misunderstands China’s military expenditure, say experts
Minnie Chan in Beijing
5 March 2009
What China includes and does not include in calculating its military budget is the reason the outside world fails to understand its real defence expenditure, military experts said.
Andrei Chang, chief editor of the Canadian-based Kanwa Asian Defence Monthly and a long-time observer of China’s military, said he doubted that even the 14.9 per cent increase in the military budget for this year announced yesterday gave the real expenditure of the People’s Liberation Army.
“We know China has determined to build its first aircraft carrier, and [that project] certainly needs much more money,” he said.
“But we can’t find any hints from the figures of this year’s military budget ... does it have a special budget for the aircraft carrier project that wasn’t counted in the defence budget?”
A Shanghai-based military expert says the aircraft carrier project’s budget has been included in the defence budget for many years.
“Actually, money for the aircraft carrier development project is definitely part of the military budget. It has been allocated for a long time, but we do not announce it to the outside,” said the expert, who refused to be named.
“This military budget was approved last October by President Hu Jintao, who is also the chairman of the Central Military Commission.”
With Beijing facing a series of sensitive anniversaries this year, including the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, the 50th anniversary of a failed Tibet uprising, the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen crackdown and the 10th anniversary of the suppression of the Falun Gong, more money would be spent on internal security, the expert said.
“But internal security costs, such as the parade on National Day and the mobilisation of the local police force to maintain social stability, would not be counted in the military budget,” he said.
“We have a police force totalling nearly 3.5 million, which is 1-1/2 times that of our PLA. Indeed, internal security is another pillar that China never tells the outside world how much it has spent on.”
Ted Carpenter, vice-president for defence and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute in Washington, said China had kept the budget increase at such a level because it clearly believed that it still had important strategic objectives that required improving its military capability.
“For similar reasons, the United States is increasing its proposed military budget for the coming year, even though the economic crisis has had a greater impact here than in China, and even though US defence spending is already much larger than China’s [defence] budget,” Professor Carpenter said.
“[But] I also suspect the 14.9 per cent figure was a compromise - that if the economic situation were better, the increase would likely have been in the range of 17 to 18 per cent.”
He said China’s low transparency in military spending certainly made its neighbours nervous.
National People’s Congress spokesman Li Zhaoxing said the 480.7 billion yuan (HK$545.8 billion) budget did not have any invisible expenditures, but Mr. Chang said the PLA should learn from western countries to show its actual military expenditure every year, beyond just what is budgeted.
“China needs to show us how much [it has] spent on weapons development, soldiers’ salaries and other defence purposes,” he said.
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