Saturday 27 September 2008

A Risky Way to Manage Risk

The credit default swaps market - a market that for years was kept out of view and away from any regulation - has suddenly turned into a political hot potato in Washington, where the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission said during the week that regulation was needed, while the secretary of the Treasury said efforts were already under way to get things under control, and urged caution.
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British Banks Reportedly Seek Bailout

British banks are proposing that the government help bail them out of losses from the credit crunch so they can resume lending, according to four people with knowledge of the discussions, but Prime Minister Gordon Brown suggested Friday that he would not go along.
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Armageddon Still Looms

Here we are a week later, and guess what? Armageddon is again approaching. All week long, the credit-default swap spreads on Morgan Stanley widened, until, by Friday, they were actually worse than they were at any time during the previous week. (And this time, the chief executive, John Mack, can’t blame the short-sellers for his troubles, since short-selling in financial stocks has been temporarily banned.)
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Shanghai Bourse to Supervise Retail Investors

The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued on Saturday China’s first ever rules for supervision of retail stock investors, saying those who violate laws would face criminal charges, in a move touching a fundamental problem of more speculation than investment in China’s stock market.
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Singapore Slips towards Recession

Singapore would probably slip into a recession this quarter for the first time since 2002 as exports and manufacturing slumped and fewer tourists visited the city state, economists said.
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Australia to Buy A$4b Mortgages to Revive Market

Australia will spend A$4 billion (HK$25.8 billion) buying residential mortgage-backed securities to revive a debt market frozen by the global credit crunch.
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Bulk Shippers Fall on Rates Gloom

Shares in bulk shipping companies fell as much as 11 per cent yesterday as hopes for a recovery in dry bulk freight rates dimmed amid a scale back in global steel mills output.

Subtle Differences between Chinese, Russian Spacesuits

When astronauts Zhai Zhigang and Liu Boming get into their spacesuits and drift side by side in the orbit module, it will be hard to tell one from the other.
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HSBC Raises Rates for New Homebuyers

HSBC, the largest mortgage lender in Hong Kong, will raise its interest rate for new homebuyers to offset higher funding costs stemming from the recent global financial turmoil.
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Traders Can Appeal Against Fines

SGX clarification is a response to brokers' fears over error trades
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Cramer: Worst Case? Dow Under 8400

Without the Paulson plan, or if the plan is so watered down and delayed, I have been saying all bets are off and we could be in for a huge swoon. How huge?

I like to sit down and noodle on the actual components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to give you a real sense of what can go wrong. And there is so much going wrong. The credit markets are vanishing, the earnings are vanishing and the only hope is a plan that ignites credit markets, forces money off the sidelines and gets this economy and the worldwide economy moving again.

Property prices, rents set to fall in Asian cities

Property prices and rents in Asia's financial centres of Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo are set to fall as banks scale back hiring and investments in the global financial turmoil.
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Friday 26 September 2008

China to stop iron ore imports from Vale

CHINA will not import iron ore from Brazil-based Vale in the short term, a finance newspaper reported today.

China Allows Short Sales, Margin Loans to Help Market

China’s cabinet agreed to let investors buy shares on credit and sell borrowed stock to help develop Asia’s second-largest market after prices and trading volumes slumped, an official familiar with the plan said.
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Singapore Banks' Asset Quality At Risk - MS

Japanese Jumping Back into Wall Street as China Sits and Watches

Wall Street investment banks, or their remnants, eager for outside cash, have found some big buyers. On September 22, Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan’s largest bank, announced plans to buy a 10%-20% stake in Morgan Stanley, making it the biggest share holder and earning it a seat on the board of directors. The deal may run as high as $9 billion. The same day, Japan-based Nomura Securities picked up Lehman Brothers Asian units for $225 million.
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Rich with Cash but Short of Talent, Chinese Bankers Eying Wall Street

Wall Street is undergoing a reshuffling, and assets are on the table for financial firms of other counties to pick up. Japan-based Mitsubishi UFJ and Nomura Securities have already made moves. Will cash-laden Chinese financial institutions follow them in?
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US$900b Aftershock Seen Hitting US, Europe Banks

They face rising premiums as debts mature amid frozen primary market
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Dealers petition against short-sell penalties

They say that SGX move is too harsh on honest mistakes
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Hundreds of Economists Urge Congress Not to Rush on Rescue Plan

More than 150 prominent U.S. economists, including three Nobel Prize winners, urged Congress to hold off on passing a $700 billion financial market rescue plan until it can be studied more closely.
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What Short Sale Ban? Where There is a Will..

If regulators think they can stop all betting against financial stocks by banning short selling, they might want to think again.
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Paulson Just Buying Time for the Markets

There’s one glaring weakness in Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s plan to save the U.S. financial system: We know what the plan is. Any other problems with it are mere details.
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Asia Ponders the Demise of Wall Street’s ‘Superior Model’

A decade ago, Alan Greenspan, then the Federal Reserve chairman, declared that Asia would realize that “market capitalism, as practiced in the West, especially in the United States, is the superior model.”
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Real Estate Market Braces for Cold Winter

China’s property market bubbled confidently last year. Now it’s a grim scene of slow sales, price cuts and failed land auctions.
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Thursday 25 September 2008

Huijin Functioning as A-Share Market Stabilization Fund

Some market watchers think that although China has not officially established a stabilization fund for the stock market, Huijin is actually playing the role unofficially.

Broker

Bumpy Ride Ahead, Warn Experts

Industry players see homebuyers forfeiting deposits to cut losses amid correction
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Germany says U.S. to lose financial superpower status

Germany blamed the Anglo-Saxon capitalist model on Thursday for spawning the global financial crisis, saying the United States would lose its financial superpower status and have to accept greater market regulation.

Cities Move to Lift Home Sales

Local authorities aim to shore up tax revenues amid slump
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Mainland Banks Sitting on a Time-Bomb Too

Yet even as bank shares are rocketing, the business environment for mainland lenders is deteriorating. Worse still, although mainland banks have mostly avoided exposure to the sort of structured products that have inflicted such damage on banks in the United States and Europe, there is disturbing evidence that they are replicating similar products in the mainland market, with similar potential risks.
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Property prices to take credit crunch blow, warns CLSA

Hong Kong commercial and residential property prices will tumble up to 30 per cent by the end of next year as the global credit crunch filters through the markets, according to brokerage firm CLSA.
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Fancy a Van Gogh? China’s Factory for Fakes Tries to Beat Slump

In a village in southern China, Wu Ruiqiu is worried about the effect of an economic slump on the art market. He should be. Wu represents artists that make 60 percent of the world’s oil paintings.
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ASIA FUND POLL: Managers Steer Clear Of Asian Stocks

With global stock markets in turmoil, fund managers largely stayed away from Asian equities during the month of September but Hong Kong was an exception to the general aversion.
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China Shuns Paulson’s Free Market Push as Meltdown Burns U.S.

“The U.S. financial system was regarded as a model, and we tried our best to copy whatever we could,” said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China’s central bank. “Suddenly we find our teacher is not that excellent, so the next time when we’re designing our financial system we will use our own mind more.”

“China’s made it clear it won’t listen to these snake-oil salesmen who come from Wall Street, even if they’re wearing suits issued by the Treasury Department,” he said. “It’s strengthened the hands of all the people who are very sceptical about financial liberalization in China.”
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Singapore escort girls cash in on Grand Prix traffic

SINGAPORE, Sept 25 - Big spenders in Singapore for the city state's first ever Formula One Grand Prix this weekend have boosted business for high-end social escort agencies by a fifth, a local paper reported on Thursday.

China Golden Week

SSE will be closed from 29 September to 3 October, resume on 6 October.

HSI will be closed on 7 October.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) could fall to 1800 - Citi

China may cut interest rates and bank reserve requirement further - JPMorgan

HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - China may cut its benchmark interest rate and bank reserve requirement ratio further to fend off the impact of the turmoil in global financial markets, said Jing Ulrich, head of China equities at JPMorgan.
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China Bourses Relax Rules On Related-Party Stock Transactions

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--China’s stock exchanges said Thursday they have relaxed rules on related-party transactions, in a bid to help ease restrictions on share repurchases.

China banks told to halt lending to US banks – SCMP

BEIJING, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Chinese regulators have told domestic banks to stop interbank lending to U.S. financial institutions to prevent possible losses during the financial crisis, the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday.

Wednesday 24 September 2008

Bank of East Asia Rumours

Investigation widens into unusual oil price rise

U.S. regulators have subpoenaed recent trading records from several Nymex traders as part of a widening investigation into the sharp rise in oil prices.
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Guilt-Torn Rapist Turns Himself In

A 22-YEAR-OLD man who took part in a gang rape six years ago flew back to China on Friday to give himself up to police, the Pudong airport immigration authority said yesterday.
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ING’s Cliffe Says Worst of Global Credit Crunch Impact to Come

Mark Cliffe, chief economist at ING Financial Markets, comments on the turmoil in global financial markets and the outlook for commodity prices. He made the comments in an e-mail.

FBI Probing Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Lehman in Subprime Collapse

The FBI is investigating Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and American International Group Inc. in its probe of the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market, according to a senior law-enforcement official.
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A Privileged Generation in China Performs Well in Crises

China’s pampered, 20-something “little emperors” surprised the nation with their hard work during the Olympic Games and the earthquake that killed an estimated 87,500 people in May, showing that they may, after all, be capable of leading China to superpower status instead of just to the mall.
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'I don't think I'll reach 94' - Lee Kuan Yew


What about his son?

Naked Short Fine Will Create New Problem

Letter to the editor
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Traders Jumpy over Penalties

Daily volume falls to lowest levels in 3 weeks; some call SGX move drastic
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SGX Short-Selling Measures Fall Short

Regulator hasn’t addressed the heart of the short-selling equation: the quantities and names of scrip lent to short-sellers
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Asian vs Western Comparison


Blue = Western
Red = Asian

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2009 Chinese Zodiac

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Please Read This Slowly

Paul Krugman: Cash for Trash

Or rather, it will be crippled by inadequate capital unless the federal government hugely overpays for the assets it buys, giving financial firms - and their stockholders and executives - a giant windfall at taxpayer expense. Did I mention that I’m not happy with this plan?
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Bailout Plan Will Be Drag On Fragile US Economy

If you’ve been worried about the health of the economy and you also have doubts about the soundness of the Treasury’s Wall Street rescue plan, then be afraid, be very afraid—because the US economy may get a taste of what Japan’s suffered over a decade-long period.
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Tuesday 23 September 2008

Hedge Funds Suffer Mass Redemptions

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor, says worse is to come. He believes there will be an increase in client withdrawals and a shake-up of how funds are regulated.
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US Dollar Set to be Major Casualty of Hank Paulson’s Bailout

This may prove to be the dollar’s epochal moment - the moment historians look back at as its major turning point.
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America Finds Own Medicine Hard to Swallow During Crisis


The basic take was that the US is proving better at imposing its prescriptions on developing nations than following them.
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Compulsory Catalist Delisting: Who Will Protect Minority Rights?

SINCE the introduction this month of transition measures by the Singapore Exchange (SGX) to manage the move by former Sesdaq companies now on Catalist to the sponsor-supervised model - which were seen as aiming to speed up the switching process - the market’s focus has been on the expense associated with sponsorship and the tardiness of the more than 100 firms involved.
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Hebei Dairy’s Messy Supply Chain

Outsourcing and lack of government oversight provided a fertile environment for tampering in Hebei’s dairy industry.
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成也萧何,派也萧何

US bail out US$ crash, don't bail out financial crash.

Oil Prices Soar Over Doubts About Rescue Plan

Oil prices posted their biggest one-day gain on Monday, jumping more than $25 a barrel as investors dashed into commodities on concerns about the government’s plan to bail out the financial system.
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Cramer: Sell, Sell, Sell

This market’s a triple sell, Cramer said during Monday’s Mad Money.
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S-Chips - Citi

Opportunities in a Bear Market Rally

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Doubts Grow on US Bailout Plan

A PROPOSED US$700 billion bailout for the banking industry leaves many questions unanswered, but has prompted fears about giving the US government unprecedented power to intervene in the economy, analysts said on Monday.

Abraham Lincoln

“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.” - Abraham Lincoln

‘Bigger Bailing Bucket, But the Boat Still Leaks’

It’s unlikely that the STI’s bounce will extend for much longer. Once investors start to focus on earnings and the grim economic outlook again, weakness will probably set in again. A re-test of 2,300 is likely, possibly within the next 2-4 weeks. So the advice remains the same as it has been for several months now, which is to sell into strength at every opportunity.
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Sweet Smells Foster Sweet Dreams


Sleep with flowers in your bedroom if you want sweet dreams, work suggests.
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Monday 22 September 2008

SGX Enhances Transparency and Deters Failed Share Delivery

22 September 2008 - Despite current market turbulence and global financial uncertainties, trading of securities listed on Singapore Exchange (SGX) has been orderly and settlement has been timely. Nevertheless, SGX would like to enhance existing transparency in the market and to deter failed deliveries.
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Three developments at weekend to hurt China steel sector

There were 3 developments at the weekend, which overall will have a negative bearing on China’s steel sector and steel stocks. Two of them have long-term significance, as they represent obvious attempts by overseas iron ore suppliers to force a collapse in the 27-year system of annual benchmark iron ore price-fixing, which Beijing is fighting to uphold.
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A Lion's Touching Story


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Comment on HSI by The Standard

The Hang Seng Index could breach 21,000 points by the end of the week if funds continue to flow back into the Hong Kong market, market watchers said.
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2009 Chinese Horoscope for the Year of the Ox

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小不忍则乱大谋

"Our single best asset in the portfolio right now is patience," Mark Patterson, chairman of New York-based Matlin Patterson Global Advisors, said at a Sept. 16 investors' conference.

“Prices still need to drop dramatically,” said Sperling, co-president of Thomas H. Lee Partners LP, a closely held leveraged buyout firm in Boston, at the Dow Jones conference. “Just because prices are down doesn't mean it's cheap.”

China Relaxes Share Buyback Rules to Boost Stock Market

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Dollar May Get ‘Crushed’ as Traders Weigh Up Bailout

“As we get to the other side of this, the dollar will get crushed,” said John Taylor, chairman of New York-based International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the world’s biggest currency hedge-fund firm, which manages about $15 billion.
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More Regulators Move to Curb Short-Selling

More financial regulators across the globe are following the lead of the United States and Britain to curb the short sales of financial stocks in a move aimed at returning stability to financial markets.
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Last week was too wild even for hedge funds with a taste for risk

For the very best hedge fund managers, who reap rich fees and laurels for making bold, counterintuitive bets, the furious rally late last week in financial stocks was - in theory - a golden moneymaking opportunity.
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Hedge Funds Plan to Sue FSA Over Short-Selling Ban

A group of the world’s biggest hedge funds are planning to sue the Financial Services Authority for millions of pounds of losses incurred as a result of the regulator’s ban on short-selling last week.
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Q&A: The Wall Street Bailout Plan

Here are several questions and answers of concern to people outside the financial world:
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Will the Bailout Work?


As the U.S. government steps to the center of the financial crisis, crafting plans to take ownership of up to $700 billion worth of bad mortgages, a pair of simple questions rises to the fore: Will this intervention finally be enough to restore order? And what will this grand rescue cost U.S. taxpayers?
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Bubblenomics


Despite government efforts, a bleak outlook for the U.S. economy
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Market Rally Built on a Government Rescue: Can it Last?

Yet with the terms of possible further assistance not spelled out, there is no guarantee that the upturn in the stock market will continue.
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Obesity ‘Raises Miscarriage Risk’


Women who have had a miscarriage could be at greater risk of miscarrying again if they are obese, research suggests.
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Sunday 21 September 2008

Citigroup: Above the Fray?


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From Boom to Bust, China’s Stocks Casino Loses Luster

China’s middle-class moms and blue-collar pensioners were among the world’s most avid and successful investors last year. Now their record is one of lost fortunes, broken families and protest.
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Thin Line Separated Fates of Merill Lynch and Lehman Brothers


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Keynes' Famous Words

Markets can remain illogical far longer than you can remain solvent.

Is a High-Dividend Fund Really a Good Defence?

With the sizzling bull market over and widespread carnage across global markets, general investors are looking for defensive plays, and high-dividend equity funds are being considered. However, can we really equate high-dividend equity funds with defensiveness? Before this question can be answered, there is more fundamental work to do: defining high-dividend equity funds.
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Chua Hak Bin - Citigroup


‘We’ve seen the fallout from the credit crunch in quite dramatic fashion and it is by no means over.
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Oei Hong Leong


Bailout offers just a short-term reprieve
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小不忍则乱大谋

That was why Liu Bang succeeded and Xiang Yu failed.

Scepticism over US$700bn bailout

Top Senate Democrat blamed the crisis on Bush’s laissez-faire policies.
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Texting Riskier for Drivers than Alcohol

If you SMS while driving, your reaction time falls by 35% as compared to that of a drunk driver, 21%.
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