Sunday 6 January 2008

Today 6 January 2008

8 comments:

Guanyu said...

Japan’s new rich party like it’s 1989

TOKYO - THEY customise the headrests of their Rolls-Royces with ‘Harry Potter writing,’ sip martinis poured over diamonds and buy US$130,000 (S$186,290) watches on a whim.

Meet Japan’s big spenders.

On a Wednesday night, carefully coiffed women in fur coats slide into a rooftop bar in Ginza, Tokyo’s most exclusive shopping district. Ten floors below, the streets resound with the angry growl of a Ferrari stuck in a traffic jam.

In this setting reminiscent of the booming 1980s, it seems hard to believe that Japan is suffering from weak consumer spending.

Despite a sluggish economy, tepid retail sales and a weak yen, demand for super-luxury goods and services is up, thanks to a small, growing class of new rich - the winners of Japan’s economic reforms.

In a society that used to value equality and modesty, these entrepreneurs and executives in sectors such as information technology and finance like to flaunt their wealth.

‘People have a view of the Japanese as quite conformist,’ said Matthew Bennett, general manager of Rolls-Royce Motor Cars in Japan. ‘But the number of people asking us to do something we’ve never seen before is the highest in the world.’

Japanese clients frequently arrive with bits of cloth or magazine photos, asking for a custom-made Rolls-Royce, he said.

One ordered a two-tone car in light grey and tomato red, a previously unseen colour combination that added more than US$20,000 to the retail price of about US$390,000. Another had his Rolls-Royce fitted with a refrigerator and television, bringing the price up to about US$550,000. Yet another asked for his initials to be put on the headrests in Gothic script - or, as he put it, ‘Harry Potter writing’ - an extra US$5,000.

Rolls-Royce’s bespoke services for Russian and Eastern European clients centre around armoured cars. Chinese colour requests all tend to be for auspicious red and gold. But in Japan, Mr Bennett said, the wealthy stand out with personal and often quirky ideas.

‘It’s a very rich market for us,’ he concluded.

It is also a rich market for fast cars. Maserati sales were up 21 per cent in January to November 2007 compared with the previous year. Ferrari sales grew 11 per cent in that period, Porsche 15 per cent. Meanwhile, cars for the once so mighty middle class are selling badly. Toyota sales fell 17 per cent in the same period, Volkswagen sales 6 per cent and Mercedes sales 7 per cent.

Fashion rift
In the fashion world, extremely expensive brands such as Bottega Veneta, whose cheapest handbag sells for US$1,500 on Tokyo’s glitzy Omotesando shopping mile, are doing better than Gucci or Louis Vuitton, the traditional favourites of the Japanese luxury shopper, whose handbag prices start at US$600 to US$900.

‘There’s a sort of polarisation,’ notes Claudia D’Arpizio, a partner at consultancy Bain & Co, in a phone conversation from Italy, where she is based. She points out that Bottega Veneta has been shifting its collection in Japan towards more expensive items due to high-end demand. Louis Vuitton, on the other hand, launched lower-priced models in Japan last year to fish around for new customers.

The spending habits reflect a deepening economic divide.

Japan, long known for its safe and stable corporate culture, introduced performance-based wages and stock options and made it easier to hire and fire temporary workers to boost competitiveness after the 1990s economic slump. This has produced a new business elite as well as a growing number of poor and unskilled temporary workers.

For luxury goods makers, the new rich are an appetizing prospect. The number of people in Japan holding more than US$1 million in financial assets grew 5.1 percent in 2006 to some 1.5 million, about three times as many as in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong put together, according to the Capgemini/Merrill Lynch World Wealth Report.

In 2007, Japan saw an avalanche of products for the very wealthy: a volcanic body scrub and massage at the new Armani tower in Ginza for up to US$600; a US$130,000-a-night Christmas suite with a bejewelled tree in the Mandarin Oriental hotel; a US$47 set of tissues in a Swarovski crystal-studded box. The Ritz-Carlton in Tokyo launched a US$15,000 martini with a diamond.

‘That’s ridiculous,’ said a 45-year-old business owner and one of Japan’s newly wealthy.

‘Those people hanging around Ginza, they are just showing off,’ he said, relaxing in his sleek Tokyo office in jeans and a white shirt. ‘If someone has it, other people want it. That’s Japanese. The group mentality.’ The business owner was willing to talk about his spending habits only on condition of anonymity, for fear of drawing unwanted attention, and declined to say how much he was worth.

He is onto his fourth Jaguar and just bought a US$130,000 Francois-Paul Journe to add to his growing watch collection. He once bid in an auction for woodblock prints by Hiroshige, a 19th century Japanese printmaker, during a flight from Frankfurt to Cairo. The line kept breaking up, but he still came away with 15 prints.

Prestige
Finding out what exactly such top spenders want and marketing it effectively can be tricky.

Versace has tried to position itself globally as a super-exclusive brand by selling custom services such as interiors for private jets. But in Japan it lacks prestige, possibly because it does not have a flagship store in the Ginza district. The Italian fashion house’s financial troubles have prevented it from investing in marketing and retail in a city that is suddenly seeing an influx of money from European brands.

Over the past year or so, Armani, Gucci, and Bulgari have all opened retail towers in Ginza, which feels like a live, super-scale commercial for luxury goods. Chanel, Louis Vuitton, Hermes, and many others are already there, with adverts and brand names splashed across 10 storeys. Facades sparkle with projections of snowflakes or bamboo, vying for the attention of Japanese shoppers. The weak yen also means it is a good time for upmarket brands - flush with cash from a global luxury boom - to secure a place there.

Bulgari, the Italian jeweller, invested heavily in Japan last year, opening a flagship store in Omotesando as well as Ginza.

Francesco Trapani, Bulgari’s chief executive, said in a telephone interview from Italy that Japanese demand for jewellery in the higher price segments - which he defined as 25,000 euros (S$52,851) to 70,000 euros, or US$37,000 to US$100,000 - has been particularly strong.

‘In Japan, there’s a great opportunity for more expensive, more sophisticated products, be it watches, jewellery, or accessories,’ Mr Trapani said.

The new Bulgari restaurant on top of the flagship store in Ginza is packed on a weekday. ‘Luxury clients want to be entertained,’ Trapani added. ‘A retail space shouldn’t just be a sales point, it has to be fun and exciting and underline the prestige of the brand they’re about to buy.’

The Japanese businessman with a weakness for watches and woodblock prints is already tiring of the shopping bonanza.

He finds there are fewer and fewer things he wants. He likes to visit museums rather than own artwork, except for a few lithographs by Salvador Dali and Pablo Picasso.

‘The process of getting it, or just before getting it, is interesting. Keeping it is not so interesting,’ he concludes. -- REUTERS

Guanyu said...

‘Hey...want to take cab? No surcharge for peak hours’

AS MR A.L. Tan’s cab comes into sight, an A4-size handwritten sign on his dashboard is what a potential passenger will see first.

‘Not 35% surcharge peak hour’, it says.

He has resorted to waiving the surcharge after last month’s cab fare hike.

‘I used to make up to $130 during peak hours,’ said the cabby of 15 years in Mandarin. ‘Then the customers were scared off and I couldn’t even make $10!’

Cabbies complain that passengers are disappearing during morning and evening rush hours. What used to be a $2 flat surcharge for travelling between 7am and 9.30am, or 5pm and 8pm, is now calculated as 35 per cent of the metered fare.

A passenger travelling from Ang Mo Kio MRT station to Choa Chu Kang’s Lot 1 Shopping Centre pays about $14 outside peak periods. Slap on the surcharge during peak hours and the fare is now $19.

Although cab companies are optimistic that the recent fare changes will raise drivers’ incomes, cabbies themselves are not so sanguine.

Most of the 20 cabbies The Sunday Times spoke to say that passengers are more receptive to the 30-cent higher flag-down fare, but baulk at paying the peak-hour surcharge.

Of the 10 passengers The Sunday Times spoke to, seven said they now avoid taking cabs whenever possible, especially during peak hours. The others said that they still take a cab at least once a day.

Property agent A.C. Yeo, 54, said she now takes the train to work instead. A cab ride from her Bishan flat to her office in Toa Payoh used to cost her $6.50 during peak hours. Now, it has gone up to about $8.

To encourage more passengers to catch taxis during peak hours, some cabbies such as Transcab’s Mr Tan have come up with their own strategies.

Comfort cabby B.P. Pang, 52, is giving out discounts together with his business card in the hope of increasing his passenger base.

For a $27.40 trip from Tampines to Cecil Street, including peak-hour and Electronic Road Pricing surcharges, Mr Pang charges his passenger $21, giving him a 23 per cent discount.

He usually gives discounts only to customers whose fares exceed $20, in the hope that they will call for his cab in future.

‘I used to get at least six customers during peak hours, now I don’t even get two,’ said the cabby of three years in Mandarin.

Comfort cabby Jack Ng, 47, admits to touting at bus stops for potential passengers. Down goes his windscreen as he drives by and yells out: ‘Taxi, taxi, no surcharge.’

He said in Mandarin: ‘Many people have turned to buses and trains since the fare hike. So I try my luck at bus stops and tempt them with my cheaper fare, without the surcharge.’

Even with his new tactic, Mr Ng says he takes home about $80 a day, a 30 per cent dip from before. But he is optimistic that business will pick up as more customers are asking for his phone number and calling him when they need rides.

Sales manager Maria Woo, 35, for example, has become Mr Ng’s regular passenger, ringing him for a ride during peak hours. She takes a cab at least five times a day for business meetings.

‘He doesn’t charge me the 35 per cent and the on-call charges, saving me up to $65 a week!’ she said.

Asked if it was legitimate for cabbies to offer customers discounts, a spokesman for Comfort, Singapore’s largest taxi operator, said that cabbies are essentially their own businessmen.

She added: ‘It is their prerogative to give discounts to their customers should they so desire.’

While some cabbies are fighting the passenger drought, others are using the lax period to take longer breaks at coffee shops.

SMRT cabby S.K. Tang, 50, said: ‘Driving around looking for passengers is just costing me more diesel.’

Comfort cabby D. Ghing, 60, said cabbies are now trying to ‘out-drive’ each other for passengers.

‘Customers are like Hollywood stars now - one passenger flags, four cabs will zoom in,’ said the cabby of 25 years. ‘It’s a dog-eat-dog world here.

Anonymous said...

Confused by taxi

METER MATICS

New fare system has some commuters scratching their heads

By Elysa Chen

January 06, 2008

THINK working out how much you have to pay for a taxi ride is worse than working out a mathematics puzzle?

You are not alone.

Out of 10 people The New Paper spoke to regarding the taxi fare hike, seven admitted they were confused about the new fare structure, which came into effect 18 Dec last year.

Two didn't even know there was a change.

Four others got the new flag-down rate wrong.

Eight of the 10 people surveyed in the straw poll also got the peak hour timings wrong.

Only one knew that the surcharge in the Central Business District had increased to $3. Even then, she got the timing for the CBD surcharge wrong.

AVOIDING TAXIS

No wonder some regular taxi commuters are swearing off taxis for now.

A 23-year-old commuter, who only wanted to be known as Miss Tan, used to take taxis at least five times a week.

But now, she said: 'I'm shunning taxis, not only because they are expensive. The changes in the fare structure are also too complex.

'It's really troublesome, and I always have to wonder if I have to pay any surcharges or other hidden costs.'

Like her, many of those polled by The New Paper are avoiding taking taxis unless they can claim their transport costs.

Engineer Chan King Wee, 25, who thought that taxis would carry a second meter for the extra charges, said: 'With all those extra charges, I'll think thrice before taking a cab for my own convenience.'

Social worker Yang Kaiqi admits that she is 'not sure of all the changes' in the fare structure.

But she has a solution.

The 23-year-old calls her friends who stay in the area she wants to go to before hopping into a cab.

Miss Yang said: 'I'll call my friends first, to make sure the fare will not be too expensive.'

SHOCKED

Mr John Li, 27, a civil servant, was 'shocked to see the meter jump 20cents each time'.

Still, that has not prompted him to find out details of the fare hike.

'I'll just pay up like an idiot, then realise how much the fare has increased,' he said.

Despite the many questions about the fare hike, there are some passengers who are hopeful that, given time, these uncertainties will be cleared up.

A commuter, who wanted to be known only as Mr Chee, said: 'Taking cabs is confusing now, but I believe that in one or two months' time, people will be clearer about the changes.'

Anonymous said...

國際櫥窗: 2008,美國,一場群雄混戰的狂歡

1 月 4th, 2008 由 小編

文◎ 陸樂

2008年的美國總統大選,在2007年早已拉開舞臺的帷幕。比起往年大選,這次舞臺上下似乎更加熱鬧:黑人、女性、墨西哥裔、摩門教徒等過去和“總統” 這個名號似乎難以扯上關係的角色們,都得到了粉墨登場的機會,第一次站在了聚光燈下,口若懸河,侃侃而談。觀眾席上,也不僅僅是支持者或反對者的那些一貫 嚴肅的面孔,互聯網、尤其是YouTube這樣的視頻網站和Facebook這樣的社交網站,為這場嚴肅的政治遊戲增添了更多的娛樂意味,草根階層,用鼠 標影響選票,獲得了一次與政治同舞的狂歡機會。

群雄混戰、各有暗器

2008大選可謂群雄混戰,每人手中都握著獨門暗器。從歷史上看,在任總統或副總統一般會有一個參加下次競選,總是要把總統的癮過足了,才依依不捨地離開 白宮。但是,目前正在如火如荼進行的民主黨、共和黨的黨內初選,成為美國歷史上自從1928年以來,第一次沒有現任總統或副總統參加的黨內選舉。

而且,這次大選的序幕拉開得尤其早。四十多年前,甘迺迪在距離大選投票還有10個月時才宣佈競選總統。如今,總統候選人們早在投票前兩年,就開始摩拳擦 掌、廣結人脈,在各種政治活動中暗暗積累資本。只要有人第一次開口承認參選,其餘人都忙不迭拉開大旗,生怕被別人搶了風頭。希拉蕊本來對是否參選一直態度 模糊、讓外界猜謎,奧巴馬一宣佈競選,希拉蕊沒隔幾天也公開宣佈參與角逐,原來她也早就萬事俱備,只等後發制人。

再來看看舞臺上的角色吧。CNN的一個新聞節目裏,主持人曾經開玩笑說,人們似乎已經認定了他們只是在一個女總統或黑人總統中作選擇了。在15名候選人 中,希拉蕊和奧巴馬的確是“一線明星”,在各種電視辯論會中,給他們的鏡頭總是最多的。雖然希拉蕊在各種場合表示不屑於打“性別牌”,她總是強調“我參加 競選,不是因為我是女人,而是因為我夠資格當總統”,但是人們還是給她貼上了“女性”的標籤。相比之下,奧巴馬倒是處處彰顯他的黑人身份,三年前,他就在 民主黨大會的演講中說:“我的父母給我起了個非洲名字‘巴拉克’,意思是祝福,他們相信在這個寬容的國家,這個名字不會成為通向成功的障礙。”

希拉蕊和奧巴馬,都擁有明星般的個人魅力,相比之下,奧巴馬的魅力,和他的缺陷,仿佛是雙刃劍,緊緊結合在一起。《紐約每日新聞》的政治評論家邁克·盧皮卡說,奧巴馬的問題不在於他的

“黑色”(指他的非洲血統),而在於他的“青色”(指沒有經驗)。

對他這個弱點,希拉蕊陣營常常不遺餘力地對此加以攻擊,奧巴馬索性以子之矛攻子之盾,他引用了希拉蕊老公克林頓在1992年回應老布希說他沒有經驗的話: “經驗多少無關重要,你的經驗也許是有用的,也可能是無用的。我的經驗植根於人民真正的生活當中,如果我們有勇氣去改變,將帶來美好結果。”許多懷抱理想 主義、不滿美國現狀的大學生,並不願意信任曾經投票支持伊拉克戰爭、至今拒絕道歉的希拉蕊,他們選擇了年輕、沒有經驗卻也沒有歷史包袱的奧巴馬。現在,愛 荷華州就有許多從哈佛、耶魯趕過來為奧巴馬出力的志願者,夜以繼日地幫奧巴馬忙活。

除了希拉蕊和奧巴馬這兩位一線明星,民主黨的比爾·理查森也受到不少關注。理查森是新墨西哥州州長、美國前任駐聯合國大使,他有四分之三的墨西哥血 統。和其他候選人風度翩翩的“典型政治家形象”不同,他長相憨厚,如同一名壯實的中部農民。雖然他在民主黨內名次靠後,當總統的希望不大,但是隨著美國的 墨西哥裔力量越來越壯大,誰能說他今天積累的政治資本,不是未來衝刺總統寶座的動力呢?

比起民主黨方面人選的“多姿多彩”,共和黨方面似乎相對平淡一些。最近的新聞是最初眾人看好的朱利安尼,居然在民意調查中落在阿肯色州的前州長哈克比之 後。哈克比讀過神學院、有過傳教士經歷,算是溫和的保守派。和他的宗教背景相比,另一名共和黨候選人米特·羅姆尼的宗教背景則成為他“先天不足”的弱點 了。羅姆尼是一名摩門教徒。摩門教大體上接受《聖經》中的教義,但是他們也有自己的《摩門經》。許多美國的基督教徒把摩門教看作是邪教,一般民眾也對摩門 教的一夫多妻制感到不適。民意調查顯示,大約1/4到1/3選民對選擇一名摩門教徒當總統持保留意見。對此,羅姆尼惟一的策略,就是學習當年甘迺迪解釋天 主教徒和總統職位的關係,拍著胸脯,對選民保證“政教分離”。

草根政治的網上狂歡

互聯網參與總統選舉,從來沒有像今天這樣活力四射。候選人已無法完全控制他們的何種資訊、以何種方式在網上傳播,又被大眾如何解讀,這些都迫使他們不得不改變競選策略。假設你從來沒有聽說過希拉蕊的名字,那麼從美國最大的兩個交友網站Myspace和Facebook上,你可以瞭解這個人。她的自我介紹裏沒什麼政治主 張,只是像一個急於展現自己的年輕美國女孩一樣,絮絮叨叨地告訴陌生人:她最喜歡看的電視節目是“美國偶像”、最善於做煎雞蛋、在學校成績最差的是數 學……

事實上,這些不僅僅是候選人為了討好互聯網一代的權宜之計或顯示自己幽默感的平臺,希拉蕊的交友網站鏈結,在她的官方競選主頁已經有一席之地,互聯網已經 成為總統候選人們要全力以赴、寸土必爭的獨立陣地。在YouTube上,候選人們不願意被人看到並記住的鏡頭都被無情地貼了上來。搞笑的有希拉蕊唱國歌走 調的視頻、愛德華茲一邊梳頭一邊自誇漂亮的視頻,翻老賬的有羅姆尼在1994年言之鑿鑿地說過“我相信墮胎應該是安全和合法的”,如今他悄悄改變了立場, 引來了對他自相矛盾的指責。

最有爭議的也許是奧巴馬的一個平民支持者製作的一段視頻“不同的選舉”(Vote different),它用奧維爾小說《1984》的背景,暗喻希拉蕊上臺將成為小說裏獨裁的“老大哥”。 自從3月上載以來,這段74秒的視頻,獲得了四百多萬的點擊。在談到它的影響時,《華盛頓郵報》的專欄作家豪爾德·庫爾特一針見血地說:“網路時代,一個 稍懂技術的平民,就能讓政客們學富五車的顧問自愧不如。”

■新聞鏈結

美國總統選舉制度

美國總統大選是一段漫長的歷程,必須歷經政黨初選、提名、競選活動、全民投票、選舉人團投票等階段,才能順利入主白宮。根據美國憲法規定,美國采總統制,行政權屬于總統。總統大選每四年進行一次,並可連任一次。總統兼任三軍統帥,同時不需向國會負責。

總統大選的投票分為兩個進程,一為全民投票,二為選舉人團投票。

全民投票實際上並非選舉總統,而是選舉出代表選民的“選舉人團”。此後,選舉人團成員將在各州首府分別投票,選舉總統和副總統。正式的選舉結果,其實在全 民投票當天即已確定,因此選舉人團的投票只是一種形式,並不具實質意義。美國總統選舉並非直接選舉,而是間接選舉。目前除了緬因州和內布拉斯加州,其餘48州均採取“勝者全拿”的選舉制度。

Guanyu said...

Director plans movie remake of '70s US TV series 'Kung Fu'

AP - Saturday, January 5

HONG KONG - A movie remake of the 1970s U.S. TV series "Kung Fu" is in the works, with backing from Warner Bros. studios, which made the original TV show, the director of the film said.

"Kung Fu" is about the adventures of a Shaolin monk in the American West starring David Carradine as Kwai Chang Caine.

Director Max Makowski, who is making the movie version, said he's considering seven actors to play Caine after auditions in Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Vancouver, Hawaii and Singapore.

He said he hopes the remake will be "edgier, faster-paced, less Zen contemplation and more action."

"We want to take advantage of the fact that our hero is a Shaolin monk stuck in the lawless tough world of the wild West," Makowski said in an e-mail to The Associated Press.

The director said the budget hasn't been set but the movie will be shot entirely in mainland China.

He said the Hollywood studio Legendary Pictures, which made "Superman Returns" and "300," is leading the project and Warner Bros. is co-financing and distributing.

Makowski's credits include the movies "One Last Dance," "Taboo" and the TV series "Queer Eye" and "The Agency."

Guanyu said...

Jan 6, 2008

Air China parent to make higher offer for China Eastern

HONG KONG - AIR China’s parent firm said on Sunday it would make a higher offer for a share of China Eastern Airlines than rival Singapore Airlines had agreed to, as the battle for the Shanghai-based carrier raged on.

China National Aviation Corp (Group) Limited said it would pay at least HK$5 (S$0.92) a share if shareholders reject Singapore Airlines’ offer of HK$3.80 a share at a meeting on Tuesday.

CNACG, which owns about 12 per cent of China Eastern’s Hong Kong-listed shares, said it also plans to form a strategic partnership with China Eastern Airlines if the Singapore deal falls through.

Both proposals would be submitted within two weeks after the shareholders’ meeting, the company said in a statement.

‘We believe that the CNACG proposal, which has the added advantage of supporting the cooperation of China’s major airlines, will produce greater benefits to China Eastern Airlines than the Singapore Airlines proposal,’ it said.

‘We strongly believe that the CNACG proposal will provide the necessary synergies and fully utilise the functions of all relevant parties in the development of Shanghai as an aviation hub.’

Singapore Airlines and the city-state’s state-linked investment firm Temasek signed a preliminary agreement in September to take a combined 24 per cent stake in China Eastern for US$923 million, or HK$3.80 a share.

The deal sparked intense jockeying over China Eastern’s fate, with Air China and its strategic partner, Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific Airlines, subsequently making, and then withdrawing, a counter-offer.

The statement from CNACG made no mention of Cathay Pacific.

The tussle reflects the intense competition for a piece of China’s aviation pie, particularly the lucrative Shanghai-Hong Kong routes plied by China Eastern.

Last week, CNACG said it intended to reject the Singaporean offer at Tuesday’s shareholders’ meeting if the bid, which it said undervalued the Chinese airline, was not improved. -- AFP

Guanyu said...

Official sacked for extravagant funeral in south China

An official in south China’s Guangdong Province was sacked recently for holding an extravagant funeral for his mother, the Guangdong provincial discipline watchdog has announced.

Xie Pingfa, former director of the highway bureau of Lufeng City of Guangdong Province, held the funeral for his mother on Nov. 17. He organized more than 1,000 people, including eight officials and workers in his bureau, for memorial service and funeral procession.

After the ceremony, Xie hosted 100-table banquets at two venues, treating guests for the funeral.

The extravagant funeral caused a stir among local residents, and the Guangdong Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection of the Communist Party of China (CPC) investigated the case.

Based on investigation, the Commission decided to strip Xie of his post because the case had caused "a bad social influence", according to a report released by the Commission.

Anonymous said...

Dealing With the Dragon

By Paul Krugman
January 4, 2008

On both Wednesday and Thursday, the price of oil briefly hit $100 a barrel. The new record made headlines, as well it should have. But what does it mean, aside from the obvious point that the economy is under extra pressure?

Well, one thing it means is that we’re having the wrong discussion about foreign policy.

Almost all the foreign policy talk in this presidential campaign has been motivated, one way or another, by 9/11 and the war in Iraq. Yet it’s a very good bet that the biggest foreign policy issues for the next president will involve the Far East rather than the Middle East. In particular, the crucial questions are likely to involve the consequences of China’s economic growth.

Turn to any of several major concerns now facing America, and in each case it’s startling how large a role China plays.

Start with the soaring price of oil. Unlike the oil crises that followed the Yom Kippur War and the overthrow of the shah of Iran, this crisis wasn’t caused by events in the Middle East that disrupted world oil supply. Instead, it had its roots in Asia.

It’s true that the global supply of oil has been growing sluggishly, mainly because the world is, bit by bit, running out of the stuff: big oil discoveries have become rare, and when oil is found, it’s harder to get at. But the reason oil supply hasn’t been able to keep up with demand is surging oil consumption in newly industrializing economies — above all, in China.

Even now, China accounts for about only 9 percent of the world’s demand for oil. But because China’s oil demand has been rising along with its economy, in recent years China has been responsible for about a third of the growth in world oil consumption.

As a result, oil at $100 a barrel is, in large part, a made-in-China phenomenon.

Speaking of made in China, that brings us to a second issue. There’s growing concern in this country about the effects of globalization on wages, largely because imports of manufactured goods from low-wage countries have surged, doubling as a share of G.D.P. since 1993. And more than half of that rise reflects the explosive growth of U.S. industrial imports from China, which went from less than 0.5 percent of G.D.P. in 1993 to more than 2 percent in 2006.

Last, but most important, is the issue of climate change, which will eventually be recognized as the most crucial problem facing America and the world — maybe not today, and maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of our lives.

Why is climate change a China issue? Well, China is already, by some estimates, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. And as with oil demand, China plays a disproportionate role in emissions growth. In fact, between 2000 and 2005 China accounted for more than half the increase in the world’s emissions of carbon dioxide.

What this means is that any attempt to mitigate global warming will be woefully inadequate unless it includes China.

Indeed, back in 2001, when he reneged on his campaign promise to limit greenhouse gas emissions, President Bush cited the fact that the Kyoto treaty didn’t include China and India as an excuse for doing nothing. But the real problem is how to make China part of the solution.

So what does all this tell us about the presidential race?

On the Republican side, foreign policy talk is all bluster and braggadocio. To listen to the G.O.P. candidates, you’d think it was still February 2003, when the national discourse was dominated by people who thought that American military might was sufficient to shock and awe the rest of the world into doing our bidding.

Memo: China has 50 times the population of Iraq.

The Democrats in general make far more sense. But among at least some of Barack Obama’s supporters there seems to be a belief that if their candidate is elected, the world’s problems will melt away in the face of his multicultural charisma.

Memo: It won’t work on the Chinese.

The truth is that China is too big to be bullied, and the Chinese are too cynical to be charmed. But while they are our competitors in important respects, they’re not our enemies, and they can be dealt with.

A lot of Americans, when they think about the next president’s foreign-policy qualifications, seem to be looking for a hero — someone who will stand tall against terrorists, or transform the world with his optimism.

But what they should be looking for is something more prosaic — a good negotiator, someone who can bargain effectively with some very tough customers and get the deals we need on energy, currency policy and carbon credits.